The impact of Canada’s study permit caps, Part 1
This year, the Government of Canada and Immigration, Refugees, and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) made a number of significant changes to the study permit program for international students. These include college and undergraduate permit caps announced in January, caps on graduate students announced in September, and the November end of the Student Direct Stream (SDS) and Nigeria Student Express (NSE) programs.
The government’s stated goals for these changes are to promote international student diversity and the study permit program’s credibility, while combating fraud and malicious actors and controlling population growth.
While the study permit caps announced 10 months ago only affected college and undergraduate students, MPOWER Financing has observed a widespread decline in both applications and issuances across all levels of international postsecondary education in Canada. The following information was obtained from IRCC through an Access to Information and Privacy (ATIP) request and includes data ending September 30, 2024. Terms like 2023/24 academic year refer to the 12-month period from October 1, 2023 to September 30, 2024.
Highlights and key take-aways
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- Between academic year 2022/23 and 2023/24, both study permit issuances and applications fell considerably: Issuances fell by 24% and applications fell by 25%.
- Study permit issuances fell by 26% for college students, 20% for undergraduate students, and 19% for graduate students.
- Study permit issuances fell by 25% for Indian students, 12% for African students, and 40% for Latin American students. At the same time, Chinese enrollment grew by 4%.
- Because applications fell along with issuances, many segments saw a rise in study permit approval rates.
Impact on colleges
The Canadian government’s policy changes this year primarily target colleges. As a result, it should be no surprise that colleges saw the sharpest decline in enrollment out of any category of postsecondary higher education.
Nationwide, study permit issuances for college-bound students fell by 26% between academic years 2022/23 and 2023/24, but there was significant variability based on country of origin. Enrollment from China rose by 38%, while there was a significant decline in enrollment from Africa (16%). Figure 1 shows enrollment changes for college students between the 2022/23 and 2023/24 academic years.
College enrollment changes
2022/23 to 2023/24 academic year
Figure 1: College enrollment changes
Source: IRCC, MPOWER Financing
Indian students, who receive the vast majority of all college study permits, exhibited unique trends during the 2023/24 academic year. While Indians submitted only ~half the college study permit applications in 2023/24 that they did in 2022/23, the total amount of permits they received only fell by 25%. The result of this is that the Indian college study permit approval rate rose from 63% to 86%.
However, only 22% of African study permits to attend a college program were approved during the 2023/24 academic year. Figure 2 shows study permit approval rates for undergraduate students during the 2023/24 academic year.
Study permit approval rates for colleges
2023/24 academic year
Figure 2: Study permit approval rates for colleges
Source: IRCC, MPOWER Financing
Zooming in on the provinces reveals some notable trends. In Ontario, both applications and issuances have declined, with Indian students experiencing the most significant drop. The Canadian colleges that lost the most incoming students include Conestoga College, Niagara College Toronto, Centennial College, Lambton College, and Northern College – all based in Ontario.
In British Columbia, however, the story is more mixed. While B.C.45 colleges saw a decline in study permit applications, the total number of issuances remained largely unchanged – and in fact, slightly rose. Interestingly, in British Columbia, the steady growth in study permit issuances for Indian students has helped offset the decline in new issuances from other regions. This means that while B.C.’s Coquitlam College and Langara College lost incoming students, others like Cambria College and Granville College were able to grow enrollment during the 2023/24 academic year.
The other provinces saw college enrollment rise by 9%, mainly driven by a 40% rise in study permits for Indian students. The biggest drops included Institut Teccart (Quebec), New Brunswick Community College, and Southern Alberta Institute of Technology, while the biggest winners were Portage College (Alberta), Northern Alberta Institute of Technology, and Collège Ellis campus de Trois-Rivières (Quebec).
Impact on undergraduate education
Undergraduate education, like colleges, was directly affected by IRCC’s study permit caps.
Nationwide, study permit issuances for university undergrad-bound students fell by 20% between academic years 2022/23 and 2023/24. Unlike for college students, enrollment for this segment was down for every major geography analyzed – except for a slight rise in enrollment from Francophone Africa. Figure 3 shows enrollment changes for undergraduate students between the 2022/23 and 2023/24 academic years.
Undergraduate enrollment changes
2022/23 to 2023/24 academic year
Figure 3: Undergraduate enrollment changes
Source: IRCC, MPOWER Financing
Similar to the college level figures, Indians submitted about half the undergraduate study permit applications in 2023/24 than in 2022/23. The total amount of permits issued to Indian students fell by 24%. The result was a study permit approval rate increase to 90%. Similar to colleges, IRCC’s goal of diversifying student intake has seemingly resulted in higher study permit approval rates for Indian students.
African students, however, submitted 6% more study permit applications, but received 11% fewer approved study permits – again showing disproportionate denials for students from the African continent. Figure 4 shows study permit approval rates for undergraduate students during the 2023/24 academic year.
Study permit approval rates for Undergraduate programs
2023/24 academic year
Figure 4: Study permit approval rates for undergraduate programs
Source: IRCC, MPOWER Financing
Similar again to the college level, Ontario bore the brunt of the decline in university undergraduate enrollment, with new study permit issuances falling by 33%. Algoma University, York University, and University of Toronto suffered large enrollment declines, but Yorkville University (Toronto) grew enrollment, mostly from India.
British Columbia enrollment fell by only 6%, and the province actually saw a slight increase in enrollment from India. Capilano University, University of British Columbia, and Kwantlen Polytechnic University saw large enrollment declines, but the province’s big winners were its private for-profit institutions Yorkville University (Vancouver) and University Canada West.
Other Canadian provinces saw a decrease in undergraduate study permit issuances. This led to schools like Cape Breton University, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières, University of Manitoba, and others losing large amounts of new students. However, some schools like Université du Québec en Outaouais Pavillon Alexandre-Taché, Université du Québec à Rimouski and University of Lethbridge (Alberta) were able to grow their international student intakes.
Impact on graduate education
The IRCC explicitly exempted graduate and doctoral students from the caps announced in early 2024. Still, new study permit issuances for graduate-level students fell by 19%, despite applications for study permits remaining largely flat. Figure 5 shows enrollment changes for graduate students between the 2022/23 and 2023/24 academic years.
Graduate enrollment changes
2022/23 to 2023/24 academic year
Figure 5: Graduate enrollment changes
Source: IRCC, MPOWER Financing
Similar to the college and undergraduate figures, although Indians submitted only about half the graduate study permit applications in 2023/24 than in 2022/23, the total amount of permits issued only fell by 35%. The result has been a permit approval rate increase from 78% to 92%.
African students on the other hand, submitted 42% more graduate study permit applications than they did a year ago, but their approvals were down by 6%. This means that their study permit approval rate fell from an already low level to only 31%. Figure 6 shows study permit approval rates for graduate students during the 2023/24 academic year.
Study permit approval rates for Graduateprograms
2023/24 academic year
Figure 6: Study permit approval rates for graduate programs
Source: IRCC, MPOWER Financing
Ontario saw a slight decline (6%) in graduate students entering its institutions, driven mostly by The University of Windsor, which lost over a thousand new students. On the other hand, the private for-profit sector grew substantially: International Business University and University of Niagara Falls Canada each gained about one thousand new students.
On the other hand, British Columba saw a sharp decline (34%) in new graduate students, driven almost wholly by the private for-profit University Canada West. Few B.C. institutions saw an increase in graduate student enrollment.
Outside of Ontario and B.C., Concordia University (Quebec), Memorial University of Newfoundland, University of Calgary (Alberta) and University of Alberta all lost a large number of incoming students, while Crandall University (New Brunswick), ÉTS Montréal (Quebec), and École nationale d’administration publique (Quebec) were able to grow their international graduate enrollment.
Africa: The next frontier
Across all levels of education, interest in a Canadian education is coming less from India and more from Africa. While African enrollment has been growing substantially, this reversed abruptly in the 2023/24 academic year, when their approval rates plunged.
Today, approval rates for African students remain disproportionately low compared with their classmates from other regions. Yet, the approval rate gap for Francophone and non-Francophone African students has closed. The discrepancy between African students and students from other regions persists even when looking at applicants attending the same institution and pursuing the same credentials.
With IRCC and Canadian postsecondary institutions seeking to diversify student enrollment from India, it’s important for all industry actors to recognize and remedy the inequities African students face with study permit adjudication.
Moving past SDS
In November, IRCC abruptly ended the SDS program. The government’s rationale was that the program was counterproductive toward its diversity goals and plagued by fraud.
Indian students submitted 97% of all SDS applications during the 2023/24 academic year, revealing a program largely tailored for them. Even more surprising, the government approved 99% of the study permit applications during this same period for Indian students pursuing a graduate-level education in Canada.
However, SDS was only available to residents of two small African nations – Morocco and Senegal, though Nigerian students had access to SDS’s sister program, NSE. Intentional or not, the exclusion of African students from the program inhibited their options while contributing to today’s lopsided student body and resulting in far lower study permit approval rates for African students.
Even when adjusting for SDS availability, graduate-level Indian students enjoyed a 61% study permit approval rate without the SDS program, while the overall African student study permit approval rate languished at 31%. Figure 7 displays the disparity in study permit approval rates between Indian and African students.
Study permit approval rates for graduate-level Indian and African students
2023/24 academic year
Figure 7: Study permit approval rates for graduate-level Indian and African students
Source: IRCC, MPOWER Financing
The requirement to purchase a guaranteed investment certificate (GIC) under the SDS program disproportionately favored students who could engage with Canadian banks. This entrenched the Canadian banking oligopoly and prevented access to students able to demonstrate the funding requirements through alternative means.
A successor to the SDS program should ensure that students from all nations can access the benefits of higher approval rates and expedited processing. This would involve expanding the program to include more countries and accepting alternative forms of financial verification, such as support from reputable global lenders. These changes would promote greater equity in the study permit process and open opportunities for a more diverse class of international students without jeopardizing these students’ ability to sustain themselves financially while in Canada.
How post-secondary institutions can adapt
The changes to the study permit program show that all players in Canadian postsecondary education must adapt to a new reality. Not only are caps in place, but the appeal of a Canadian education appears to have declined even for segments (like graduate students) exempt from the caps.
First, institutions must diversify their recruitment to avoid being overly reliant on intake from a single region. Recent geopolitical tensions between Ottawa and New Delhi add to previous tensions between Ottawa and Beijing, demonstrating how focusing recruitment on a single country should be avoided.
In order to promote a more diverse student intake, institutions should consider initiatives that would alleviate some of the hurdles international students, particularly African students, often face when applying for a study permit. Institutions should consider application fee waivers to attract qualified applicants and be flexible with enrollment deposits that may cause a financial burden to students with fewer financial means.
It’s also important to recognize the role financing plays in student access to education. 92% of MPOWER students say a loan through MPOWER was imperative to their ability to study abroad – and accordingly, IRCC wishes to ensure students are able to comfortably support themselves with tuition and living expenses during their stay in Canada. Partnering with global lenders like MPOWER Financing can unlock access to the vast population of talented students from Africa and other parts of the world.
MPOWER Financing’s internal data during the 2023/24 academic year show its students from Nigeria, Ghana and Kenya frequently enjoyed study permit approval rates from 85 to 90% – often 60 points higher than students who didn’t have an MPOWER loan to fund their education (see Figure 8). The three universities in Figure 7 are all well-known and renowned institutions, and two belong to the U15 – an association of 15 Canadian public research universities.
Study permit approval rates for MPOWER’s African students
Students from Nigeria/Ghana/Kenya, 2023/24 academic year
Figure 8: Study permit approval rates for MPOWER’s African students
Source: MPOWER Financing
How the Canadian government can adapt
Rebuild “Brand Canada”
Recent changes to the study permit program have created a perception that Canada is less welcoming to international students. This is demonstrated by the fact that applications are declining even for segments exempt from IRCC’s study permit caps.
To reverse this, Canada needs a unified “Brand Canada” strategy, with a focus on frontier markets like Africa. EduCanada, the official Government of Canada website for international students looking to study in Canada, could expand its efforts by partnering with Canadian business schools already active in Africa to jointly promote Canadian higher education.
This is especially crucial to attract students from Francophone nations. EduCanada should establish an agency similar to Campus France, which promotes French education. This new agency could collaborate with countries like France, Belgium and Switzerland to recruit students from Francophone regions such as Morocco and Algeria.
Key to EduCanada rebuilding Canada’s image will be engaging with Canadian colleges and universities. Institutions could better recruit students from Africa by offering fee waivers, flexible enrollment policies, and educating registrars on accepting global payments. With a unified strategy, Canada can reestablish itself as a leading destination for international students, especially those from Francophone countries.
Addressing approval disparities
IRCC must tackle the root issue of study permit approval disparities between students from Africa and other parts of the world. African students face dismally low approval rates. IRCC should investigate to ensure they aren’t held to different standards than other international students.
Adopting best practices from countries like the U.S., where schools verify students’ financial plans, could help. A pilot program with trusted institutions and clear guidelines on funding sources would give study permit officers a clearer financial picture, addressing concerns about students’ ability to support themselves in Canada.
Canada has a chance to reform its study permit process and regain its reputation as a welcoming destination for international students. Post-SDS, IRCC has the opportunity to address and remedy the program’s shortcomings. A new approach that allocates study permits equitably would promote diversity and enhance the program’s credibility. These changes would help international students access quality education, driving economic growth and cultural exchange while ensuring a more inclusive and credible system.
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